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Italy Hosts Climate-Focused G20        10/27 06:05

   The leaders of Russia and China aren't coming. Turkey nearly set off a 
diplomatic incident on the eve of the meeting. And the United States, Australia 
and France will be at the same table for the first time since Washington pulled 
the rug out from under Paris' $66 billion submarine deal Down Under.

   ROME (AP) -- The leaders of Russia and China aren't coming. Turkey nearly 
set off a diplomatic incident on the eve of the meeting. And the United States, 
Australia and France will be at the same table for the first time since 
Washington pulled the rug out from under Paris' $66 billion submarine deal Down 

   A Group of 20 summit scheduled for this weekend in Rome - the first 
in-person gathering of leaders of the world's biggest economies since the 
COVID-19 pandemic started - is not business as usual. That's especially true 
since as soon as the event ends, a bigger United Nations summit devoted to 
climate change begins in Glasgow, Scotland.

   In many ways, the two-day G-20 meeting is serving as a Roman holiday 
preamble to the 12-day Glasgow summit, with the climate dossier taking center 
stage at the new Nuvola (Cloud) convention center in the Italian capital's 
Fascist-era EUR neighborhood.

   Some of the participating presidents and prime ministers met at a 
COVID-focused Group of Seven summit in July, and some passed one another in the 
U.N. hallways during the General Assembly in New York last month. But this is 
the first time the leaders of countries that account for 75% of global trade 
and 60% of the world's population will be meeting as a group after nearly two 
years of virus-induced lockdowns.

   While economic recovery is a top agenda item, host Italy hopes the leaders 
will set a shared, mid-century deadline to reach net-zero greenhouse gas 
emissions and explore a commitment to reduce methane emissions as well.

   The United Nations and climate activists also want the G-20 countries to 
fulfill their longtime pledges of providing $100 billion a year in climate aid 
to help poor nations cope with the impacts of global warming.

   "G-20 members are responsible for over 80% of global emissions. So there is 
a responsibility when they come together as a group to think about the promise 
of $100 billion in annual climate financing that is not being met," said Renata 
Dwan, deputy director of the international affairs think tank Chatham House.

   But what can be achieved if the leader of China, the world's No. 1 carbon 
polluter and No. 2 economy, doesn't show up in Rome?

   President Xi Jinping, who hasn't left China since early 2020, is expected to 
participate remotely, as is Russian President Vladimir Putin. Mexican President 
Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador also isn't coming and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio 
Kishida hasn't confirmed his presence due to a weekend national election.

   The absence of Xi and Putin sends a signal that Europe should note in 
particular, said Massimo Franco, international affairs columnist for Italian 
daily newspaper Corriere della Sera.

   "If China doesn't come to Rome, if Russia -- which has a lot of energy to 
sell to Europe -- doesn't join the G-20, I think that this G-20 will be a 
confirmation of European fragility from the energetic point of view," Franco 

   Last month's announcement of a U.S.-British deal to sell nuclear-power 
submarines to Australia illustrated Europe's geopolitical vulnerability. The 
deal scuttled France's $66 billion deal to sell French-made diesel-powered 
submarines to Australia, and led an French government to take the unprecedented 
action of recalling its ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia.

   U.S. President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron have spoken 
twice by telephone since the tiff and are expected to meet privately in Rome. 
Macron is aiming to secure U.S. backing for "the establishment of a stronger 
European defense, complementary to NATO and contributing to global security," 
the presidential Elysee Palace said.

   Macron has not spoken with Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison since 
France's submarine sale went south, however, and it's not clear if the two will 
meet in Rome.

   Carlo Altomonte, a professor of European economics at Milan's Bocconi 
University, said the U.S.-British-Australian deal was clear evidence of 
shifting strategic priorities and attention to the Indo-Pacific region to 
counter China's increased assertiveness, in this case at the expense of 
Washington's traditional European allies.

   "This in a way obliges the European Union to decide, autonomously, a series 
of local geopolitical questions" at the G-20 level and beyond that until now 
had long included Washington as the heavyweight partner, Altomonte said.

   Turkey, one of the G-20 members, was in a position to cast a pall over the 
upcoming meeting when it threatened last week to expel the ambassadors of 10 
Western nations over their support for a jailed activist. Four of the 
threatened envoys hailed from G-20 nations Germany, France, Canada and the U.S.

   The G-20 also include Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, 
Italy, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the 
United Kingdom and the European Union. Spain holds a permanent guest seat.

   Italian Premier Mario Draghi, who helped save the euro with his now-famous 
promise to do "whatever it takes,'' will have his hands full trying to steer 
the meeting to nudge some solid climate commitments ahead of Glasgow while 
negotiating a new era for European multilateralism.

   "Not 'whatever it takes,' but I think he'll try to point to the strategic 
points for Europe, and how Europe can play a role in this mess," newspaper 
columnist Franco said.

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